Grain and soybean futures saw a decline overnight following the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s announcement of increased wheat stockpiles and raised corn production forecasts for the 2024/2025 marketing year. The USDA report released on Friday projected wheat inventories at 856 million bushels, up from the previous estimate of 758 million bushels. Soybean production was forecasted at 2.008 billion bushels with a yield of 51.8 bushels per acre, higher than the initial outlook of 1.875 billion bushels with a yield of 49.4 bushels per acre. Corn production for the upcoming year is anticipated to reach 15.1 billion bushels, up from the earlier forecast of 14.86 billion bushels, with a consistent yield of 181 bushels per acre. Despite a slight decrease in corn stockpiles to 2.097 billion bushels, soybean production is expected to decrease to 4.435 billion bushels, with end-of-year inventories projected at 435 million bushels, lower than the previous estimate of 455 million bushels.
Wheat futures for September delivery dropped to $5.34 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures fell to $5.53¾ a bushel. Corn futures for December delivery also experienced a decline to $4.09¼ a bushel, and soybean futures for November delivery decreased to $10.48¼ a bushel. Soymeal prices dropped to $311.70 a short ton, and soy oil was down to 44.61¢ a pound.
Speculators increased their bearish positions in corn and soybeans in the week ending on July 9, as reported by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The number of net short contracts in corn rose to 356,415 futures contracts, up from 345,774 contracts the previous week. Money managers also raised their bearish bets on soybeans, reaching 162,803 futures contracts compared to 133,766 contracts in the prior week. In contrast, hedge funds and large investment firms reduced their positions in hard red winter wheat to 40,893 contracts from 43,173 contracts, and decreased their net short positions in soft red winter wheat to 68,692 futures contracts from 73,958 contracts in the previous week.
