Economists at TD Securities have revised their cash rate calls for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). According to their latest forecast, the RBA is expected to begin easing in November, while the RBNZ is anticipated to hike by 25 basis points at its next week’s meeting.

TD Securities has adjusted its predictions for both central banks, stating that the RBNZ’s eventual easing cycle is likely to be more aggressive. They expect the RBA to implement 100 basis points of cuts in the easing cycle, with the first 25 basis points cut projected to be delivered in November 2024, as opposed to their previous call for August 2024.

Regarding the RBNZ, TD Securities now forecasts hikes at the upcoming meeting, with an increase of 25 basis points, and another hike in May, which would take the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 6%. As a result, they believe that the eventual easing cycle is likely to involve 200 basis points of cuts.

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