The Fed’s Data Dependency Risks Causing Mistakes
The Federal Reserve’s heavy reliance on economic data has led to potential policy mistakes and increased market volatility. The focus on data has caused the Fed to fall behind in its inflation battle and make repeated forecasting errors. This excessive data dependency risks keeping interest rates too restrictive for too long, leading to output loss, higher unemployment, and financial instability. The analogy of driving a car by looking in the rear-view mirror rather than through the windshield illustrates the potential problems with the Fed’s approach to data dependency.
US Inflation Expected to Slow Further as Labor Pool Expands
US inflation is down from a four-decade high as the labor force grows. Economists are optimistic about the potential for a ‘soft landing’ and reduced pressure on wages and labor costs.
Time For Powell To Take Control
The Federal Reserve needs to regain control of the equity market and address rising inflation expectations. Investors are looking to the Fed for guidance and action, as the central bank’s ability to manage inflation and stabilize the equity market is crucial for restoring confidence and sustaining economic growth.
Canadians Seek Cheaper Grocery Options
A new survey reveals that many Canadians are switching grocery stores in search of lower prices, with nearly 60 per cent consistently seeking out discounted food products. The high cost of groceries has led 64 per cent of Canadians to believe that inflation at the grocery store is worsening. With every dollar counting, families are prioritizing deals, as evidenced by one shopper who spends $300 per week on groceries and goes where the savings are. The survey also found that stores run under Loblaw are the top destination for discounted food, followed by Walmart, Costco, Metro/Foodbasics, and Giant Tiger.
UK News Digest: Recession, a Shabby State of Affairs – and a Wait After a Fall
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s promises have largely failed to materialize, with the UK falling into a recession. Labour MP Rachel Reeves demands an explanation, but Sunak and his deputy are absent. Journalist John Crace shares a personal anecdote, and SNP and Conservative MPs walk out during a debate on Gaza, highlighting the challenges in UK politics.
Many Americans Feel Economy is Rigged Against Them, Study Shows
Many Americans feel that the economy is rigged to benefit the rich, despite national indicators suggesting a strong economy. A project by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences revealed a prevailing sense of economic struggle and lack of support. Despite reports of declining income inequality, many individuals still feel that the underdog cannot get ahead, attributing this to a system driven by greed and profit.
Wage Growth Identified as Key Driver of Consumer Price Inflation
Confidential Treasury analysis reveals that wage growth is the primary driver of consumer price inflation, debunking claims of corporate profit gouging. Concerns are raised about the outlook for wages, productivity, and inflation, with potential implications for interest rates and inflation forecasts.
TD Securities Revises Cash Rate Calls for RBA and RBNZ
TD Securities economists revise cash rate calls for RBA and RBNZ, predicting RBA easing in November and RBNZ hike of 25 basis points. RBNZ expected to implement aggressive easing cycle, while RBA projected to make 100 basis points of cuts. Forward-looking statements provided for informational purposes only. Investing in open markets carries significant risks.
Producer Prices on the Docket — Data Week Ahead
Investors were cautiously optimistic ahead of the producer price report for January, with Futures on the Nasdaq 100 up 0.4% this morning. But indices quickly fell after the PPI was posted at 8:30 am ET.
Britain Enters Recession with Worst GDP Performance in Years
Britain has entered a recession with its worst GDP performance in years, as the economy contracted by 0.3% in the final three months of 2023. This news is a setback for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and could impact the upcoming general election. Despite the recession, finance minister Jeremy Hunt remains optimistic about the economy’s future prospects.