As the NFL regular season approaches its climax, Week 13 brings a critical juncture for teams vying for playoff positions. The playoff probabilities, as analyzed through advanced metrics, provide a comprehensive view of each team’s chances as they head into this pivotal week.

The Next Gen Stats playoff probability model offers insightful estimates, dynamically updating every five minutes during live games to reflect the latest win probabilities. This model not only assesses current standings but also projects future outcomes based on ongoing matchups.

For clarity, let’s break down some key terms used in assessing playoff probabilities:

• If win: This reflects a team’s chances of making the playoffs assuming they secure a victory in their upcoming game.
• If lose: Conversely, this indicates a team’s playoff chances if they were to lose their next game.
• Playoff leverage: This metric quantifies the impact of a single game on a team’s playoff prospects. It is determined by the difference in playoff probabilities between winning and losing the upcoming game. A high playoff leverage signifies that the game outcome significantly influences the team’s playoff chances, marking it as a crucial matchup.

Let’s dive into the current playoff picture as we enter Week 13, focusing on both the AFC and NFC conferences.

AFC Playoff Picture

1. Chiefs (10-1)

• Playoff Probability: >99%
• If Win: 100%
• If Lose: >99%
• No. 1 Seed Probability: 67%

2. Bills (9-2)

• Playoff Probability: >99%
• If Win: 100%
• If Lose: >99%
• No. 1 Seed Probability: 29%

3. Steelers (8-3)

• Playoff Probability: 93%
• If Win: 99%
• If Lose: 91%

4. Texans (7-5)

• Playoff Probability: 94%
• If Win: 98%
• If Lose: 89%

5. Chargers (7-4)

• Playoff Probability: 86%
• If Win: 94%
• If Lose: 81%

NFC Playoff Picture

1. Eagles (9-2)

• Playoff Probability: >99%
• If Win: >99%
• If Lose: 99%

2. Seahawks (6-5)

• Playoff Probability: 44%
• If Win: 52%
• If Lose: 29%

3. Packers (8-3)

• Playoff Probability: 90%
• If Win: 96%
• If Lose: 84%

4. Commanders (7-5)

• Playoff Probability: 60%
• If Win: 71%
• If Lose: 42%

5. Dolphins (5-6)

• Playoff Probability: <1%

6. Jets (3-8)

• Playoff Probability: <1%

This week could mark a decisive moment in the AFC East race. If the Dolphins fall to the Packers on Thanksgiving, and the Bills secure a victory against the 49ers, Buffalo would clinch their fifth consecutive division title. Despite the Jets’ slim chances, they still hold out hope for a miraculous finish, needing to win all their remaining games while relying on losses from both the Bills and Dolphins.

Meanwhile, the Patriots, who were eliminated from contention in Week 12, still have the potential to disrupt playoff aspirations for their rivals, as they prepare to face the Bills.

As we move closer to the playoffs, the stakes are escalating, and every game counts. The playoff probabilities are set to shift dramatically as teams fight for their postseason lives. Fans can stay updated with live simulations and updated probabilities as the action unfolds in Week 13.