JP Morgan has made a significant shift in their forecast regarding the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut, moving it from July to November. The anticipation surrounding the FOMC meeting this week has been building with various financial institutions weighing in on the potential outcomes.

Goldman Sachs, in their preview of the FOMC meeting, suggested that there might not be a cut immediately, but hinted at possible rate cuts in the near future. They specifically mentioned the likelihood of a rate cut in September followed by another in December, with more expected in 2025 and 2026.

JP Morgan, on the other hand, initially predicted a rate cut in July but revised their forecast to November after the release of positive job reports last Friday. This adjustment in their forecast reflects the changing economic landscape and the data available to analysts.

Looking ahead, JP Morgan expects a dovish stance from Federal Reserve Chair Powell following the FOMC statement this week. They project a potential rate cut in November, followed by a series of quarterly rate cuts in the coming year.

According to JP Morgan analysts, the decision to postpone the rate cut to November was influenced by the robust job growth momentum seen recently. They believe that it might take a few more employment reports before the November FOMC meeting to confirm the need for a rate adjustment.

The quarterly cadence of rate cuts proposed by JP Morgan suggests the possibility of four more cuts in 2025, spread across the quarters of the year. This forecast indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy in response to the evolving economic conditions.

With the financial markets closely monitoring the FOMC meeting this week, the decisions made by the Federal Reserve will have a significant impact on various asset classes including bonds, the S&P index, and the US dollar. Traders and investors are keenly observing the outcomes of the meeting to adjust their strategies accordingly.