A big, dead satellite, the European Space Agency’s (ESA) ERS-2, is expected to crash back to Earth sometime next week. The satellite, which completed its Earth-monitoring mission in 2011, has been deorbiting since then and is predicted to impact Earth between February 20-22, 2024.
Due to the lack of control over its reentry, ESA refers to it as a ‘natural’ reentry, making the window for its impact imprecise. As the reentry approaches, the window narrows, and ESA’s latest prediction points to a reentry at 12:10 UTC on Wednesday, February 21, 2024, with an error margin of plus or minus 26.62 hours. However, ESA is providing frequent updates on this timeframe.
During a recent press conference, ESA estimated that the largest fragment of the satellite that could reach the ground weighs 115 pounds (52 kg). Despite this, the likelihood of a piece of the satellite falling on someone’s head is estimated at one in a billion. With 71% of Earth’s surface covered by water, it is probable that the satellite will make a significant impact somewhere in the world.
ERS-2, ESA’s second European Remote Sensing satellite, was launched on April 21, 1995, and served for 16 years until its retirement in 2011. Following retirement, the satellite underwent 66 maneuvers in July and August of that year to assist with deorbit, depleting its fuel to decrease its orbit and minimize the risk of colliding with operational satellites. By September 2011, all the fuel from ERS-2 was depleted, rendering the spacecraft inoperable.
Throughout its operational years, ERS-2 played a crucial role in collecting data on polar ice, changing land surfaces, sea-level rise, warming oceans, and atmospheric chemistry. Additionally, it was utilized during natural disasters in remote regions, providing valuable insights that revolutionized our understanding of climate change and significantly contributed to the advancement of Earth observation science.
With an approximate weight of 5,057 pounds (2294 kg), the reentry of ERS-2 is anticipated to be a significant event. While most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere, the impending crash has garnered widespread attention due to its potential implications.
