Brown University’s Dr. Ashish Jha predicts a ‘modest’ COVID wave to hit the United States this summer, peaking in early to mid-August. Dr. Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and former White House COVID-19 response coordinator, shared his insights during a recent discussion.

Based on data from wastewater analysis and historical trends, Dr. Jha anticipates two COVID waves annually in the country – a modest summer wave and a larger winter wave. He noted that while for many, COVID has become more of an inconvenience than a severe illness, it remains a serious concern for older individuals and those with compromised immune systems.

Monitoring COVID levels in wastewater, Dr. Jha highlighted a 50% increase in infections over the past two months, although levels are still relatively low compared to previous averages. Data from the state Department of Health in Rhode Island also indicates a rise in virus levels in wastewater.

Joseph Wendelken, a spokesperson for the Rhode Island Department of Health, mentioned a slight uptick in COVID-19 detection in the state’s wastewater and emergency department visits. However, a higher percentage of infections are now asymptomatic or result in milder illnesses that do not necessitate medical intervention.

Dr. Jha observed that this year’s summer wave appears to be commencing earlier than in the previous year. He explained that these waves occur due to virus evolution and diminishing immunity against infection, exacerbated by factors like increased indoor activities during the summer months.

Despite the pandemic phase nearing its end, Dr. Jha emphasized that COVID will persist. He advocates for annual vaccinations, especially for high-risk individuals, along with improved treatments and structural changes such as enhanced indoor air quality to effectively manage the virus.