A potential catastrophic scenario was recently discussed by asteroid experts, NASA workers, federal emergency management officials, and international partners during a table-top simulation aimed at enhancing the nation’s readiness to respond to potential asteroid threats. In this hypothetical situation, a massive asteroid with a 72% chance of colliding with Earth in approximately 14 years was the focal point of the exercise. The sheer size of this space rock could not only wipe out a city but also cause devastation on a regional scale.
Terik Daly, the planetary defense section supervisor at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, emphasized that while there are currently no known substantial asteroids on a collision course with Earth in the next century, the lack of information about many large asteroids that could pose a threat is concerning.
Astronomers estimate that there are about 25,000 ‘near-Earth objects’ measuring 140 meters across or larger, but only 43% of them have been identified so far. The recent table-top exercise held in April in Maryland was part of ongoing preparedness efforts and was the first drill following NASA’s successful DART mission, which demonstrated the potential to alter an asteroid’s trajectory by colliding a spacecraft with it.
Following the discovery of the hypothetical asteroid in the simulation, scientists approximated its size to range from 60 meters to nearly 800 meters. Even a smaller asteroid within this range could have significant consequences depending on its impact location, as noted by Lindley Johnson, NASA’s Planetary Defense Officer Emeritus. While an asteroid of 60 meters hitting the ocean might not pose a major threat, the same asteroid striking land near a populated area would present a serious situation.
Given that telescopes typically perceive such asteroids as mere points of light in space, the ability to detect and track these celestial objects remains a critical challenge. The simulation underscored the importance of continued vigilance and preparedness to effectively respond to potential asteroid threats and protect the planet from catastrophic impacts.
