An international survey conducted by leading scientists has revealed that the next global pandemic is most likely to be caused by a strain of the flu virus. The survey, which involved inputs from 187 senior disease experts, showed that 57% of them believe that influenza poses the greatest threat to global health.

The study, to be published at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases congress, highlights the constant evolution and mutation of the influenza virus as the basis for this concern. According to Jon Salmanton-García from Cologne University, who led the research, the recurring outbreaks of influenza during winters could be seen as small pandemics that are currently manageable due to the relatively low virulence of the strains.

Following influenza, the next potential cause of a pandemic, as indicated by 21% of the experts, is a hypothetical virus referred to as Disease X, which is currently unknown to science. This unforeseen micro-organism could emerge suddenly, similar to how the Sars-CoV-2 virus, responsible for Covid-19, appeared in humans in 2019.

While some scientists still consider Sars-CoV-2 a looming threat, with 15% of respondents viewing it as a probable cause of a future pandemic, other known deadly pathogens like Lassa, Nipah, Ebola, and Zika viruses were rated as less significant global risks by only 1% to 2% of the surveyed scientists.

The findings emphasize the consensus among experts that influenza remains the primary concern in terms of its pandemic potential, outweighing other infectious diseases in the eyes of a majority of the global scientific community.